NY Times Admits Final Election Poll 'Probably Wrong'

The New York Times published their final 2024 election poll showing "the race remains essentially even across the seven states likeliest to decide the presidency." Kamala Harris might have ticked up slightly over the last week, but...

"Across these final polls, white Democrats were 16 percent likelier to respond than white Republicans. That’s a larger disparity than our earlier polls this year, and it’s not much better than our final polls in 2020 — even with the pandemic over. It raises the possibility that the polls could underestimate Mr. Trump yet again,” the NYT concedes.

Think clearly about this. A major pollster is acknowledging there is a strong possibility their polls are undercounting Trump voters by 16%. If that is true, then we could see an electoral blowout on Tuesday.

And it gets worse. The NYT warns Democrats, their primary audience, that late deciders who originally indicated their support of Harris might be flipping to Trump.

"A word of caution: Hypothetically, many of these 'late deciders' might have told a pollster earlier that they were Harris voters — if only we had called them at the time and asked them to formulate an opinion they hadn’t yet made. As a result, the responses to this question don’t necessarily explain the shift in the polls — even if they do align with the trend in this case."

But don't think this is an outlier. CNN's Henry Enten admitted this morning that either the polls are correct, and we will see a razor thin victory either way. Or there will be an "electoral blowout" where one candidate receives over 300 electoral votes.
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